1. Mitch Bainwol
Give the major labels credit. They picked a WINNER!
The only question is...is he good for America, is he good for the PUBLIC, or only good for THEM!
Hilary Rosen was reasonable. She tried to address issues head-on. Mitch Bainwol is a devious, behind-the scenes operative. Who, like Karl Rove, keeps his eye constantly on the prize, he just wants to WIN! That's the question...what will it take to WIN!
The major labels could give a fuck about music or the musicians who make it. They only want to preserve their market share, their MONOPOLY! Which is threatened by the Internet.
So Mitch has demonized the Net. But in a calm, rather than histrionic fashion. Read his press releases, his quotes, he almost seems REASONABLE! We're all in this TOGETHER, for the COMMON GOOD!
But then look what he's doing behind the scenes...
The heinous Induce Act. Getting State Attorneys General to crack down on file-trading. Hell, the RIAA is spreading around money where you can't even SEE IT! Sponsoring events at law enforcement conventions. They're positively HEINOUS!
The Internet is the greatest thing to ever happen for music and music lovers. It promises cheap, easy delivery of a vast quantity of music to EVERYBODY! However, the major labels lose their distribution advantage when the Net is in play. And THAT'S why they're fighting it so hard.
Mitch Bainwol is a Republican. He's got a smiling face, but while you're looking at one thing, he's doing another, MORE IMPORTANT THING! Just like the President rolls back environmental regulations while he's got the populace scared about terrorism.
Mitch is making progress. He should be fought at all costs.
The only problem is, the only people who understand the landscape are under twenty five year old computer users who have no voice in the newspapers and on the cable television outlets which shape popular opinion.
2. Andy Lack
Everyone needs a power base. And in the music business, that's represented by MARKET SHARE!
The reign of Universal Music is OVER!
Universal Music is positively old school. It believes in high executive salaries and huge marketing costs. Throw in a dose of bullying and you've got an immovable force. A gang that wants things THEIR WAY and will retaliate against those who want it another.
But that's because their market share DWARFED that of the other companies. Yes, that's the unreported story of the past decade. How Universal prevented movement by the four other majors, threatening LAWSUITS!
But now Andy Lack runs an empire as large as Universal's. And he's got a parent company ON THE BALL! CONCERNED with what's happening.
Universal is still owned by Vivendi. The operatives at the label have convinced their French overseers that they know nothing about this business, that they must authorize high salaries, that they must wait until the business turns around to sell it off.
Whereas Sony freaked out a couple of years back. And fired Tommy Mottola. Granted, Sony might have been doing worse financially than Universal, but Universal's numbers are pretty awful too. It's just that Sony chose to DO something about it.
Lack cut overhead and expenses. But his real coup was the merger. He saved a label group from near-extinction with this maneuver. And now his goal is to stabilize the operation and either have it generate profits or SPIN IT OFF!
Yes, Lack is on the ball. It's not business as usual. It's bunker mentality.
Whereas Universal HIRED expunged Sony employees Tommy Mottola and Polly Anthony. Somehow thinking how the business ran in the nineties is how it will run today.
It's not absolutely clear how Lack will wield his power. But HE WON'T kowtow to Universal, or anybody else. He's not exactly a bull in a china shop, but he's not afraid to run alone.
3. The Mays Family
It's not about the radio stations. The radio stations will become an albatross soon. It's about the CONCERT DIVISION!
I know, you're scratching your head. Since Sillerman fucked up the company's bottom line by laying off SFX on Clear Channel. But read the financial analysis.
Viacom's stock has been moribund. Because it's almost a pure ADVERTISING play. And the public is SICK of ads. To the point where Clear Channel recently decreed that they were going to REDUCE ad time per hour.
No, we're moving to a SUBSCRIPTION MODEL!
Clear Channel DOES have a minor investment in XM, but there will come a day when conventional over the air radio tanks like network TV and they'll wish they owned a lot MORE!
But, they've got the concert division.
Ironically, partially as a result of the restrictive policies of the radio group, the live business is where the growth possibilities are.
No, not in the business itself so much as the ANCILLARIES!
He who controls the venues wields A TON of power. Up to this point, Clear Channel has been overpaying acts. But they could turn that situation upside down. They've already got Instant Live. They could have a record label. And they could expose this music on the radio stations while they still matter.
There's a finite amount of real estate. You can't put on a major tour without playing Clear Channel buildings. Think of the POSSIBILITIES!
Don't be confused by this summer's concert numbers. A lot of business is STILL being done. It's just that Clear Channel PAID TOO MUCH FOR THE ACTS! But, after this summer, the business will be realigned. From top to bottom. Agents and managers will have less control. Guarantees and ticket prices will come down. And Clear Channel profit will GO UP! The concert business has been run like baseball, with everybody bidding up the price of talent. But, unlike in baseball, the public has started to tune out. Fiscal responsibility will bring them back. And the beneficiary will be Clear Channel.
Clear Channel will be responsible for breaking acts. It's within their control. They'll leverage that business.
4. Hugh Panero
If you don't know who this is it shows that you truly don't know anything. You probably think STEVE JOBS is the savior of music. Whereas really it's Mr. Panero and his company XM satellite radio.
Just because terrestrial radio is SO bad don't think that radio itself is a moribund medium. An iPod in the car is a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE from a good radio station. The point is...do you want to stick with the familiar or be taken on an ADVENTURE, go somewhere you didn't CONTEMPLATE!
That's what good radio is. And XM is good radio.
Mr. Panero's got nothing to do with what flows out of the various channels on his service. That's not his job. He leaves that to EXPERTS! Rather, he's responsible for GROWING THE BUSINESS!
It's the deals Mr. Panero has made with the likes of GM and Honda that make a difference. Most of those outfits' cars come with XM-ready radios. And, the ten dollar a month service fee can be built into the payment. THIS is where the action is, not people going to Best Buy for aftermarket units.
And just like when FM was installed in cars the band killed AM, in the not so distant future, XM's going to kill terrestrial radio.
Irrelevant of what it plays, irrelevant of its technology, Sirius doesn't have a Hugh Panero. So right now, they're an also-ran.
But really, it's not about which service will ultimately dominate. It's about the fact that satellite radio will RULE! Like the DVD. Just check the adoption rates. They're galloping so fast that XM was one of the best stock market performers of the year.
Now with so many channels and no commercials satellite radio will expose a ton of music, which will make the whole music SECTOR healthy. But, don't forget, it's a completely different PARADIGM! It's not about a few huge acts, but a PLETHORA of healthy middle level ones.
5. Steve Jobs
It's NOT about the iTunes Music Store. That's just a sideshow. It's about the iPod!!!
Ninety nine cents for a copy protected track is so ridiculous that Apple sells in the neighborhood of ten million tracks a month. Which doesn't even translate to a MILLION ALBUMS A MONTH! Hell, Ashlee Simpson's gonna hit that numbe r, and she's only ONE ACT!!!
THIS is how the major labels are rigging the game. They want you to purchase an antiquated format, the CD. Since the AAC file is not such a good deal. Then again, if suddenly people stopped buying CDs and went to the iTunes Music Store it would be the labels' WORST NIGHTMARE! For the majors' financial model is predicated on selling ALBUMS! A singles business DOESN'T WORK! Unless you BLOW UP THE BUSINESS!! Via authorized P2P.
Yes, blowing up the business. That's what Steve Jobs has done. Via the iPod.
You see...you want to FILL IT UP! Suddenly, there's this INCREDIBLE DEMAND FOR MUSIC! Talk to anybody who buys an iPod. After they unwrap it, that's their first concern. Where are they going to get all the music for it? Oh, they own a few CDs, but with all this capacity they want their favorite artists' FULL CATALOG! They want to borrow your CDs, they resort to illegal file-trading. Record companies could FILL this demand, but rather than adopt a NEW business model, the labels would rather stay stuck in the past.
But if you're just running in place you're fucked in Silicon Valley. No, you need to PROGRESS!
Soon there will be 60 gig iPods. Soon EVERYBODY will have an MP3 player. But the major labels will still represent a bottleneck. A finger in the dike.
Then again, if you just walk around the corner, to the P2P world, the music to fill your machine is flowing prodigiously.
Steve Jobs built the field of dreams. Yes, he built it and the audience has come. But the major labels refuse to suit up and play the game.
6. Philip Anschutz
Has the shed run its course?
Phil and his employees at AEG think so. Therefore, they're concentrating on the INDOOR BUSINESS! The YEAR-ROUND business.
Clear Channel would have clear sailing if it weren't for AEG. You see Phil, however questionably he GOT his billions, isn't thinking twice about SPENDING THEM!
He dominates movie distribution with his ownership of Regal Theatres. Now he's trying to do the unthinkable, he's trying to steal the live business from Clear Channel.
And he just might do it. Because Clear Channel is DYSFUNCTIONAL. You can't find a soul who works there who says good things about the company. Whereas people LOVE working for Anschutz.
Still, right now, Anschutz doesn't have Clear Channel's dominant position, their market share. And therefore, he and his operatives are not higher on this list.
7. Coran Capshaw
And you thought the lawyers and the MBAs were gonna rule.
No, this bar owner from the south is GOBBLING UP sectors of the business ignored or not conceived of by the heavy hitters.
Coran knows it's all about the CUSTOMER! What he FEELS! Treat the fan right, and he'll STICK BY YOU!
There's not only the Dave Matthews Band juggernaut, there's the management company, the record company and MUSIC TODAY! Which even seeming COMPETITORS use for merchandise and ticket sales.
Put this in perspective. Paul McGuinness manages supposed God U2. Look how much LEVERAGE that band has!
Dave Matthews has just that much leverage. And, if the bands were to have a play-off in Vegas, I think the DMB would ultimately win, people would pay to see Dave and the boys after everybody had enough of Bono and his troupe. If for no other reason than with the DMB EVERY NIGHT IS DIFFERENT! If you're looking at SoundScan, you're missing the point. Record sales are a JOKE! How long do you think Ashlee Simpson could play ANYWHERE! It's a CIRCLE JERK for corporate fucks. But in the trenches, amongst the PEOPLE, DMB rules. THEY'RE the foremost driver of concert voter registration. THEY'RE who people want to see, not Springsteen. Hell, compare attendance figures.
This is the new paradigm. Manager building EMPIRE! But what makes Capshaw's efforts so momentous is it's not only about HIS BAND! He's got his hands in OTHER PEOPLE'S TILLS!
8. Zach Horowitz
Even though Andy Lack is now their equal, don't expect the boys from Universal to go down without a fight. I mean do you count out the MAFIA??
Zach, Doug and Jimmy didn't see it coming. They thought they were going to rule FOREVER!
Doug's an old record man in a business that's about to be old no more. He's on the verge of extinction.
Zach...he's going to kick and scream and cause trouble. He needs to become a team player, make nice with his cohorts at the other label groups. But don't expect him to be. No, Universal Music has the arrogance of the old IBM. And therefore, they're going to be BLIND-SIDED by change.
But change is not yet complete. Today the game is still mostly MTV and Top Forty radio exposure. Wining and dining and paying a fortune to sign the talent that fits this paradigm. If Universal were preparing for a change in the game, I'd cut them a break. But I see no evidence of this.
But WHATEVER happens, Jimmy Iovine will win. That's what he does best, win. Even if Universal implodes he'll crawl from the wreckage into a brand new car. And drive to a yet undetermined place in the landscape.
But Jimmy will never rule. He's the best player on the field, but he's not the manager. Because Jimmy's street smart, and the true winners NEVER come from the street. They're WAY ABOVE the street, seeing things that those fighting for advantage in the pit just can't notice, never mind take action upon.
9. Tony Brummel
Funny what a little A&R will do for you.
How can it be that with all the major labels' highly-paid employees someone without a college education, located in neither New York or L.A., can find all the hit talent? The talent the majors WANT!
How can the majors complain about their one in ten success ratio when seemingly EVERYTHING on Victory hits.
And not only does it hit, it continues to sell every week and hit THE NEXT TIME OUT!
Maybe Brummel will get cold. It doesn't matter. The progenitor doesn't always survive. But make no mistake, the indies are going to eat up the majors' market share.
The indies are not looking for something they can sell EVERYWHERE, they're interested in NICHE PRODUCT! And, stunningly, this niche product ends up having MASS APPEAL!
The indies have NO high-paid employees. Everything's done on a shoestring by low-paid people who BELIEVE! Not in their stock options, but MUSIC!
THIS is the way it used to be. This is the way it's going to be AGAIN! Because the indies are in touch with the MUSIC! They're not worried about Clear Channel, MTV or any elements of the institutionalized game.
Then again, hasn't the rebel spirit propelled ALL the great success stories in this business?
10. The Musician
He no longer needs a major label budget to record. And he doesn't need the machine to get his work to the audience EITHER!
EVERYBODY can afford the computer equipment to make a record. You can distribute your music on a Website TODAY!
THIS is what the major labels fear most. That their slaves, their charges, the people they pay LIP-SERVICE to, will insist on OWNING THE BUSINESS!
Maybe not the major labels themselves, but their own little indie empires.
Suits don't understand creativity. They're a BOTTLENECK! The new system ELIMINATES the bogus filter between band and fan. It's a GLORIOUS NEW ERA!
The major labels should be afraid, VERY afraid.
NOT ON THE LIST
1. Tom Freston, Judy McGrath, Van Toffler
If a band DOES want to expose themselves in video, they can just put a QuickTime movie on their Website. Which can be viewed ad infinitum WHENEVER the surfer wants.
Just like Viacom changed the name of TNN from The Nashville Network to The National Network, MTV will have to stand for something different. Maybe MARGINAL Television. Or MALEVOLENT Television. Or MARKETING Television. If you think it's not Music Television today, just wait a couple of years...
2. Lyor Cohen
In so far over his head I almost don't want to waste the typing effort. Like Jimmy, Lyor's a STREET GUY! To put him IN CHARGE is to not understand the game WHATSOEVER!
3. Rob Glaser
The spin is wrong. The decoding of Fairplay is NOT about Apple, but about REALNETWORKS! This is a DESPERATE COMPANY! They're fighting DESPERATELY for a toehold in music. They're fighting desperately to SURVIVE!
4. Bill Gates
Let's see WHEN Janus finally launches, and IF it works.
Steve Jobs should be commended for learning from history. He was ALWAYS the innovator. NOW he's learned management. How to acquire the turf and CONTROL IT!
5. Sony Connect
Read the reviews of their new digital Walkman. They could not be worse.
The screen is unreadable, the menus are unnavigable, the computer software is incomprehensible, and the file format is not only proprietary, it adds HOURS to the process of loading the device.
A worse job could not have been done if they'd TRIED!
Just because they're Sony you thought they'd deliver? Just because the major studios controlled movie titles you expected them to control video games?
Video games are an art. So are computers. ESPECIALLY computer software.
Apple was not only first with a reasonable hand-held device and integrated software, they were BEST and STILL are best. And they're running to STAY AHEAD! For they KNOW everybody's gunning for them.
6. Alain Levy
Explain Virgin to me. Close down the old label, move it to New York, hire someone inexperienced who has no success and then shore him up by hiring the accountant for the guy with the incredible A&R record who couldn't make MONEY?
The only thing Levy's got going for him is EMI is independent and AVAILABLE!
7. Terry McBride, Jeff Kwatinetz and Irving Azoff
Jeff and Irving see the game, but just when they're about to win, their acts run out of gas.
Terry's got a ton of hit acts, but he doesn't see the game.
The game is...managers are soon to be more powerful than labels. After all, it's all about the TALENT!
Capshaw's making an end run. Acquiring not only talent, but the ACCOUTREMENTS, the INFRASTRUCTURE used by talent.
Jeff seems to have run out of gas. And, for the last time, movies and music don't mix.
Irving's constantly rejiggering his operation. Acquiring companies. Trying to make it work. Of these three, he's got the best chance.
8. Fuse
A pimple on the ass of the music business. Rule number one...EXPOSURE SELLS RECORDS! So, ANYWHERE they play music you're going to move records. Even at STARBUCKS! But the ratings for this channel are abysmal. And music video as an art form is dead. Instead of thinking about the possibilities HERE, trumpeting successes HERE, look at how many MILLIONS of people are trading music P2P right now and think of a way to capitalize on THAT!
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