Hip-hop will not come back.
Hip-hop was of a time and place that no longer exists. Built on a foundation of truth about the inner city, it resonated with blacks and whites because of its truth. But it was blown up by nineties society. When we were all in it together, when the hip merged with the mainstream, when we had no choice. There's no longer one scene, but many. Furthermore, like the major labels, big time rap consolidated and became about only a few themes, bitches, hos and cash. With choice, people went elsewhere. They're not coming back. Hip-hop will survive, but as a shadow of its former self.
Video has moved to the Web.
You're better off breaking on YouTube than MTV, or anywhere else on television. Because clicks on YouTube have the imprimatur of the public's choice. People are sick of being dictated to by the man, they want to make their own choices.
Singles are death.
Unless you can convince the public to believe in the act, and want to purchase everything it ever does, you're fucked. There's just not enough money in singles.
The cost of production has gone down, irrevocably.
You don't want to be in the studio business. Sure, you can make a better record in a big room with state of the art equipment, but who is going to BUY that record? Economics dictate that production costs be lower. And with the new computer tools, they can be.
The major labels will lose market share.
What they do best is find bland talent and utilizing carpet bomb marketing, they try to sell it worldwide. There is a business here. It costs money, that indies don't have. If you want to be ubiquitous, you've got to be on a major label. But not only does this reach for the brass ring come with costs to your career, most types of music just can't be sold in quantity anymore. So we've got indie niches. Until the majors enter these indie niches, they will forever lose market share. The networks merged with the cable channels. Will the majors take over the indies? Only if they're smart.
The credible acts of tomorrow will not sell out.
And credibility will equate to "career". If you want people to believe in you, if you want to be able to play music for a decade, you cannot make a deal with Procter & Gamble, or even Jagermeister for that matter. The more you take the cash from anyone but your core constituency, your fans, the more these same fans can't believe in you. Go for the slow build, not the fast ascent. Artist development is not only in the hands of the label, but the act itself. If you're looking for shortcuts, you're negatively impacting your career. If you're good, people will find you, you'll develop. Then again, most acts aren't any good.
Music is not cool.
I just did two hours on this last night on KLSX. The only callers who said music was cool were those into heavy metal bands you've never heard of.
Doesn't matter what you think of music, its image hasn't been tarnished, it's been TRASHED!
The whole industry is in trouble. As a result of the RIAA suing its customers, hip-hop being a joke and the selling of vapid, no-talent singers who don't write their own material and sound like an imitation of Mariah Carey, if they can sing at all.
People have tuned new music out.
Yes, there is great new music out there. But the casual listener is not exposed to it, and therefore has tuned out, and is into other entertainment media.
As for modern music like Justin Timberlake, that's seen as a vehicle to bump bodies in the club, it's not something you want to listen to on the stereo at home. And until that desirable listening experience comes back with new music, and people haven't changed, they still want it, kids still sit in front of their computer or fall asleep with their iPods to Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd, we're fucked.
Music should be paid for.
Music shouldn't be free. But the major labels made it so.
You can't pull people back into the past. You've got to monetize the way they presently acquire music.
This is immutable.
The more P2P is demonized, the less revenue comes in, the more the business of selling music goes into the toilet.
People only want to see stars.
Oh, you might want to see the Decemberists, but most people don't know who they are and don't care. And the Decemberists have got TRACTION! There is not a healthy live music scene. Live music is like blockbuster movies. Everybody wants to see a very few acts. Not that we should blame them, there aren't many good acts out there. And tickets are too expensive and a show is no longer about the music, but the production.
A greedy industry is looking to get all the money and is not looking to the future, when there are no superstar new acts that anybody wants to see.
Melody never goes out of style.
Beats might be selling, but there is ALWAYS room for a well-sung song with a melody and hooky changes, which people can sing along with. Those who realize this will end up with all the money.
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